Thanksgiving Grocery Prices: Turkey Costs More, Eggs and Butter Less
Picture a grocery list taped to a refrigerator door three weeks before Thanksgiving. A 16-pound turkey. Two pounds of butter. A dozen eggs for the pies. Potatoes, rolls, cranberries, a bag of flour.
Ten people are coming, and the host has a number in mind for the whole meal. The question is the one every host asks in early November: will this year’s list cost more than last year’s?
The latest federal price data gives a split answer. The bird costs more. A good part of the baking aisle costs less.
Quick answer
Thanksgiving 2026 grocery prices are mixed. Federal CPI data show food-at-home prices up 1.8% in the year to September, with the category that includes turkey up 8.4%, while eggs fell 20.6% and butter and margarine 7.6%. A USDA ad survey in mid-October put frozen whole turkeys at $1.23 a pound.
Key takeaways
- Thanksgiving is Thursday, Nov. 26; grocery prices rose 1.8% in the year to September.
- The CPI category that includes turkey is up 8.4%; advertised frozen turkeys averaged $1.23 a pound.
- Eggs are 20.6% cheaper and butter and margarine 7.6% cheaper than a year ago.
- Aldi says it can feed 10 for under $39; its turkey arrives Nov. 4.
- Buy the bird and pantry items early, produce last, and price bundles against your list.
How much are Thanksgiving groceries costing in 2026?
Thanksgiving is Thursday, Nov. 26, a little over three weeks away. The newest Consumer Price Index, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Oct. 14, shows grocery prices rising slowly overall. The food-at-home index was up 1.8% over the 12 months ending in September, and it slipped 0.1% from August.
That average hides big swings in the items that matter for a holiday table. Here is how the September CPI categories that line up with a classic Thanksgiving menu moved over the past year, unadjusted.
| CPI category | Price change, Sept. 2025 to Sept. 2026 |
|---|---|
| Eggs | -20.6% |
| Butter and margarine | -7.6% |
| Flour and prepared flour mixes | -1.1% |
| Sugar and sugar substitutes | -1.0% |
| Dairy and related products | -0.7% |
| Potatoes | +1.1% |
| Milk | +2.3% |
| Fresh vegetables | +2.8% |
| Bread | +3.3% |
| Fresh fruits | +4.9% |
| Other uncooked poultry, including turkey | +8.4% |
| All food at home | +1.8% |
Keep in mind that the CPI measures price changes, not price tags, and your store’s prices can differ from the national average.
Are turkey prices higher this Thanksgiving?
Yes, by most measures. The CPI category that holds turkey, “other uncooked poultry including turkey,” was 8.4% higher in September than a year earlier.
Grocery ads point the same way. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly survey of grocery store turkey features, dated Oct. 16, found advertised conventional frozen whole turkeys averaging $1.23 a pound. That was down from $1.28 the week before but up from $1.08 in the same period last year.
At $1.23 a pound, a 16-pound bird works out to about $19.70 before any store promotion. The same report showed whole birds losing ad space that week, with ground and deli turkey leading the circulars.
For the full year, USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts poultry prices overall will rise 1.0% in 2026. It does not publish a separate turkey forecast.
Which Thanksgiving staples are cheaper this year?
Pie bakers get the best news. Eggs are 20.6% cheaper than a year ago in the CPI, and butter and margarine are down 7.6%. Flour and sugar are each about 1% cheaper.
The egg drop follows a period of very high prices. The Economic Research Service says an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza that began in 2022 pushed egg prices up, and it now forecasts egg prices will fall 29.4% in 2026.
The sides are another story. Bread, which covers dinner rolls, is up 3.3%. Fresh fruits are up 4.9% and fresh vegetables 2.8%, and ERS expects fresh vegetable prices to finish 2026 up 5.7%. One wrinkle for dessert: plain sugar is cheaper, but the broader sugar and sweets category, which includes candy, is up 5.5%.
Which stores have announced Thanksgiving meal prices for 2026?
Aldi went first. In an Oct. 14 announcement, the chain said shoppers can buy a Thanksgiving meal for 10 for under $39, built on the core items in the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual dinner survey and including a 16-pound turkey. Items carry a turkey logo on shelves from Oct. 14 through Nov. 25.
Not everything arrives at once. Aldi lists cranberries from Oct. 26, the turkey from Nov. 4 and pumpkin pie mix from Nov. 11. The company notes that actual prices vary by product, selection and location, and that delivery and service fees may apply when ordering through apps.
Sam’s Club, a Walmart company, announced on Oct. 15 an 11-item, mostly prepared Member’s Mark meal for just under $160, serving up to 16 people. Members can add it to their carts starting Oct. 28. Walmart and Target had not announced 2026 meal deals when we checked in mid-October, so watch their sites this month.
Before you buy
- Compare turkey prices per pound, not per bird.
- Check whether a meal bundle includes items you would actually use.
- Look at the turkey’s weight against your guest count before you pay.
- Read the fine print on app orders for delivery and service fees.
What did Thanksgiving dinner cost last year?
The best-known yardstick is the American Farm Bureau Federation survey. Its 2025 edition, released Nov. 19, 2025, put a classic dinner for 10 at $55.18, or $5.52 per person, down 5% from 2024. A 16-pound frozen turkey averaged $21.50, or $1.34 a pound. Volunteer shoppers collected those prices in the first week of November 2025.
The 2026 survey had not been published when we checked. When it comes out, compare it with your own receipts rather than with the USDA ad prices above, since the two use different methods.
How can shoppers plan and save on Thanksgiving groceries?
- Price the turkey by the pound. Use the USDA ad average of about $1.23 a pound for frozen birds as a rough benchmark, and compare store ads before you buy.
- Buy the pantry items now. Flour, sugar, stuffing mix and canned goods keep for weeks, and flour and sugar are slightly cheaper than last year.
- Lean on what is cheaper. With eggs and butter down, homemade pies and baked sides are better value than they were in 2025.
- Buy produce last, and buy what is in season. Fresh fruit and vegetables are rising faster than groceries overall. Our piece on eating with the seasons covers why fall produce often makes sense this time of year.
- Do the bundle math. A store meal deal only saves money if you would buy every item in it. Price your own list against the bundle before you commit.
- Share the cooking. Asking guests to bring a side spreads the cost. If you are hosting friends, our take on Friendsgiving and making space this season has ideas for keeping it simple.
- Buy a frozen bird early. A frozen turkey needs several days to thaw safely in the refrigerator, so an early purchase also gives you time.
What should Thanksgiving shoppers watch next?
Two things. First, the Farm Bureau’s 2026 survey, which last year arrived on Nov. 19, will give a national snapshot of the classic menu. Second, USDA publishes its grocery turkey ad survey every week, so the per-pound averages in this story will keep updating as stores roll out their holiday ads.
If your store’s whole-turkey price is well above the national ad average, it can pay to check a second store before you buy.
Back to that list on the refrigerator door. It does not need to get shorter. It needs a different order: bird and pantry items first, produce last, and pies built on eggs and butter that cost less than they did a year ago.
Send us a tip
Seeing a turkey price that looks too good, or too high, at your store? Send it our way, along with any product question or recall you spot. Reader tips like the list on the refrigerator door help us decide what to report next.
Frequently asked questions
Is turkey more expensive in 2026?
By the latest federal data, yes. The CPI category that includes turkey was up 8.4% in September from a year earlier, and USDA's mid-October ad survey found frozen whole turkeys averaging $1.23 a pound versus $1.08 a year before.
Why are eggs cheaper this year?
Egg prices are coming down after a stretch of very high prices tied to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza that began in 2022, according to USDA's Economic Research Service. Eggs were 20.6% cheaper in September than a year earlier.
When does the Farm Bureau release its Thanksgiving dinner survey?
The American Farm Bureau Federation released its 2025 survey on Nov. 19, 2025. The 2026 edition had not been published as of mid-October, so check the Farm Bureau's site in the weeks before Thanksgiving.
Is a store Thanksgiving meal bundle worth it?
It can be, if you would buy every item in it anyway. Retailer prices are based on specific items and can vary by location, and app orders may add delivery and service fees, so compare the bundle with your own list.
When is the best time to buy a Thanksgiving turkey?
There is no single best day, but buying a frozen turkey early gives it time to thaw safely in the refrigerator, which takes several days for a large bird. Watch weekly store ads for per-pound promotions as Thanksgiving gets closer.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- USDA AMS: Weekly Grocery Store Turkey Feature Activity, Oct. 16, 2026 (PDF)
- USDA ERS: Food Price Outlook, Summary Findings
- ALDI via PR Newswire: ALDI Feeds 10 for Under $39 This Thanksgiving
- Walmart: Sam's Club Presents Its 2026 Member's Mark Thanksgiving Meal
- American Farm Bureau Federation: Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines
By the Trending Consumerism editorial desk (Jane Satchel), edited by Rob P., Editor and Publisher. Every fact in this story links to its source. See our editorial standards and corrections policy.
